Banking

Alex Edwards
February 2025

Following the fallout of last year’s Autumn budget, Director Alex Edwards explores how recent legislative and political reforms have impacted loan enforcement and recoveries across the UK real estate market.

Alex’s article was published in Bridging & Commercial, 18 February 2025, and can be found here.

Seismic activity ahead in the land of BTL

Following the Autumn Budget, landlords and lenders are facing an incredible complex and ever-changing landscape when it comes to real estate finance. Alex Edwards advises on what to anticipate to avoid disputes around loan enforcement and recovery

Words by Alex Edwards, director at Lawrence Stephens

On first inspection, there was little in chancellor Rachel Reeves’ first Budget to concern either mortgage lenders or borrowers. The most attention-grabbing announcements have proved to be those on inheritance tax for farmers and increased employers’ national insurance contributions.

However, several aspects of this Budget are likely to create a volatile landscape for lenders and have a long-term impact on the UK mortgage industry, posing challenges for landlords and lenders alike.

Alongside these domestic political factors, which are likely to impinge on the UK real estate finance market in the coming months and years, are global geopolitical changes that could prove to be even more critical.

By far the most prominent probable cause of a profound economic shift is the election of Donald Trump as the next US president.

Trump’s second term, for which he is far more prepared than when he previously took office in 2016, will be a White House with radically different policies and intentions compared with the previous administration. Under Trump’s leadership, the world’s economic powerhouse will be more inward looking, adopting policies that could lead to higher costs, higher inflation and, in turn, higher interest rates in the US. These untested policies could impact growth in the US and in the UK.

Renewed and potentially expanding conflict in the Middle East, with the Israeli military action in Gaza and Lebanon bringing in Iran and other significant players in the region, could have far-reaching global effects. Instability in Taiwan, with China perhaps waiting for Trump to take office in January to launch an assault, could be another source of major financial instability.

Nearer to home, the fault lines of political cohesion in Europe appear to be fracturing.
How these macroeconomic headwinds will impact the UK as it settles into having its first Labour government in 14 years is yet to be seen.

Whilst the latest economic growth figures may have dealt a blow to Rachel Reeves, the softer than expected inflation figures suggest that there is now an expectation of interest rate cuts in the coming months which will be welcomed by borrowers. That said, with the concerns around the growth of the economy, the level of inflation predicted to remain around 3% for the rest of the year, uncertainty as to how fast interest rates will continue to fall and borrowers struggling when they come to refinance could therefore be the early indicators of a new or revived cost-of-living crisis on the horizon.

While not directly linked, the tax-raising policies in Labour’s Budget will have an undeniable impact on the housing market. Shortly after the budget statement to MPs in the House of Commons, UK government borrowing costs rose to their highest level this year. This prompted many City investors to predict that the Bank of England will now be more cautious in its approach to cutting interest rates, contrary to earlier expectations.

Nonetheless, there is still very much an expectation that interest rates will gradually come down.  

Prepare for enforcement

These issues will have to be carefully considered to avoid potential disputes around enforcement and recovery. Lenders will have to ensure their teams are well prepared. They will want to carry out thorough security reviews on loans and portfolios that could go under, and carefully consider what options are available to them before they start looking at formal enforcement.

Large numbers of borrowers on fixed low rates are now far more likely to be adversely affected when their rate deals come to an end. The most dramatic consequence will likely be an increase in defaults as fixed rates come to an end.

For lenders, it will be challenging to stay up to date with such a volatile market.

It is certainly plausible that borrowers whose budgets are already squeezed may struggle this year as these many factors combine to create a tough monetary environment.

Slower development

While there has been talk of 300 new planning officers—which is of course welcome—in reality, this likely equates to around one per local authority. In terms of the day-to-day workload, this is a drop in the ocean and is unlikely to improve the planning process or make it quicker and more efficient.

Despite Labour’s rhetoric around support for developments, building and unlocking the grey belt, planning applications taking longer to be processed (due to the lack of extra planning officers) will certainly have an impact on the new build market.

We are also seeing unit sales on developments taking longer than expected, which will continue to impact developers, at least until interest rates and construction costs stabilise.

Rental yields for landlords may also drop as tenants are more likely to be unable to afford to continue to pay rents as they too continue to rise. The risk of late or missed rent payments could leave landlords in an invidious position when servicing loans secured on their BTL properties. That said, with first time buyers continuing to struggle to gain a foothold on the property market, rental demand in urban areas is likely to remain strong. 

There will continue to be challenges for developers to access financing at cost levels which are profitable, which will have an impact on the number of large scale projects getting off the ground.

Perhaps insulated from these overarching issues is student accommodation, which is an ever-growing market, and the residential market in prime London, which seems to be in its own bubble. There is consistent appetite for these types of developments.

Lenders will need to be extremely conscious of such issues and monitor potential defaults and, given the state of the market, fully assess their options in terms of next steps.

Look at the loan book

Of equal importance is that lenders must look closely through their loan books. It is crucial that they scrutinise the financial condition of borrowers who may have only one or two properties, rather than that of professional landlords with more substantial portfolios who are better set up to weather such storms.

They may also want to consider the impact of the current market climate, propelled by the aforementioned changes in the Budget, on portfolios that operate on tight yield margins. For landlords, just like residential mortgage holders, the measures announced will heavily impact borrowing rates.

International investors in the UK’s real estate market may be less affected, although the well-signposted issues across Europe and the escalation with Russia following the US’s recent decisions around weapon supplies may change this for certain individuals.

BTLs can still be attractive to borrowers and lenders alike, but lenders should be alive to the changing landscape and the wider economic pressures faced on all sides. They should be continually monitoring the effect of changes brought about by the UK government and issues caused by global shifts to understand what this might mean in the long term for defaults or recoveries.